According to a recent study published in the medical journal Lancet, the Indian economy is likely to become the third-largest in the world by the year 2050. It will be only behind China and the US and will retain the same position in 2100.
The study was conducted by translating the working-age population of countries into scenarios for total GDP. It took 2017 as the base year when India was the seventh-largest economy in the world.
According to the Lancet paper, India will evolve to become the fourth-largest economy behind the US, China, Japan by 2030 and by the year 2050, it will overtake Japan. At present, India is the fifth-largest economy in the world which is closely behind France and the UK.
Though India has big plans, the present situations are less optimistic in contrast to earlier projections. This is possibly the result of the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
According to a study by the Japan Centre for Economic Research conducted in December last year, India would outperform Japan to become the third-largest economy by 2029.
However, this estimation was made before the pandemic when the Indian government was also working on an ambitious target to become a 5 trillion dollars economy by 2025.
The Lancet paper cautioned that the working-age population will hugely decline in China and India. On the other hand, it will increase steadily in Nigeria.
“By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA. In our reference scenario, despite fertility rates lower than the replacement level, immigration sustained the US workforce,” it said.
“A sustained TFR (total fertility rate) lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences.
Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come,” the paper added.